A lot of people have asked me about the polls since the debate. Here’s where we are today. The debate was Wednesday October 3rd.
In the RCP average of polls nationally, President Obama is up 0.5%. Prior to the debates he was up as much at 4%. There are 7 polls in the average. However, three of the polls were taken before 9/30 so before the debate. Of the 4 polls in the RCP average dated after the debate, two have it tied (Rasmussen (10/7) and Gallop (10/6)). Pew (10/4 – 10/7) has Mitt up 4% among likely voters with a margin of error of 3.4%. In its September poll, Pew had Mitt down 8% among likely voters. That’s a very impressive move. Politico has the President up 1% with a margin of error of 3.1% (Politico collected data from 10/1 to 10/4 so very little, if any, debate impact). On the national level post debate, I would say its tied but advantage Romney. The swing states are the real keys to this election.
In Florida, the RCP average has the race tied. The two polls with any post debate impact are Rasmussen (10/4) which has Mitt up 2% with a 4.5% margin of error and WeAskAmerica (10/4) which has Mitt up 3% with a 3% margin of error. Post debate advantage: Romney.
In Ohio, the RCP average has Obama up 3%. There are four polls in the average. The two polls with any post debate impact are Rasmussen (10/4) which has Mitt down 1% with a 4.5% margin of error and WeAskAmerica (10/4) which has Mitt up 1% with a 3% margin of error. Post debate: Tied.
In Virginia, the RCP average has Obama up 0.3%. There are four polls in the average and three are post debate polls Rasmussen (10/4) has Mitt up 1% with a 4.5% margin of error. WeAskAmerica (10/4) which has Mitt up 3% with a 3% margin of error. PPP (a Democratic party pollster)(10/4 – 10/7) has Obama up 3%. Post debate: Tied.
In North Carolina, the RCP average has Mitt up 0.8%. There are five polls in the average. None of them have post debate polling. I doubt that the debates hurt Mitt in North Carolina.
In Missouri, the RCP average has Mitt up 5.2%. There are four polls in the average. None of them have post debate polling. I doubt that the debates hurt Mitt in Missouri.
In Nevada, the RCP average has Obama up 4.6%. There are three polls in the average. None of them have post debate polling. I have no idea what’s going on in Nevada.
Bottom line: debates can impact the numbers. According to Gallup:
“An Oct. 4-5 Gallup poll finds roughly two in three Americans reporting that they watched the Oct. 3 debate, similar to what Gallup measured for each of the three 2008 presidential debates. Those who viewed the debate overwhelmingly believe Romney did a better job than Obama, 72% to 20%. Republicans were nearly unanimous in judging Romney the winner. But even Democrats rated Romney as doing a better job than Obama, 49% to 39%. . . . Across all of the various debate-reaction polls Gallup has conducted, Romney’s 52-point win is the largest Gallup has measured. The prior largest margin was 42 points for Bill Clinton over George H.W. Bush in the 1992 town hall debate.”